Blog

Oct 25, 2024

Horse racing: Cox Plate 2024 form guide, predictions, full field, odds, start time, date, who is the favourite, Via Sistina, Prognosis, Pride Of Jenni, Mr Brightside

Melbourne’s spring carnival takes another mouth-watering great leap on Saturday when little Moonee Valley hosts one of the country’s biggest races - the WS Cox Plate. In 1922, William Samuel Cox

Melbourne’s spring carnival takes another mouth-watering great leap on Saturday when little Moonee Valley hosts one of the country’s biggest races - the WS Cox Plate.

In 1922, William Samuel Cox hatched a grand idea for a new race at the track he owned in Moonee Ponds. He couldn’t have imagined it would turn out this well.

It’s now the greatest two minutes in sport. The weight-for-age championship of Australasia. A $5 million race which consistently ranks by international ratings as the best race in the land or close to it, and which is routinely won by an outstanding thoroughbred most worthy of their place on the honour roll.

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While the Melbourne Cup is the greatest race in the country for the enduring cultural institution that it is, it’s the Cox Plate, the racing purist’s pin-up, that usually attracts the very finest horses.

Winners of the 2040-metre test, which of course sits in the top band of race categorisations as a Group 1, have included some of the most esteemed names in Australasian racing, such a Winx, Kingston Town, Phar Lap, Makybe Diva, Might And Power, and many more. Others have come from afar to claim it, like Irish raiders State Of Rest (2021) and Adelaide (2014), Japan’s Lys Gracieux in 2019, and Hong Kong’s Romantic Warrior in 2023.

The quality is linked to its being held under weight-for-age (WFA) conditions. That’s a system - invented by the aptly grand-sounding British administrator Admiral Henry Rous in the 1860s - by which horses are allocated weights according to age, rather than given handicap weights based on performance to try to engineer a close finish.

The WFA system is recognised worldwide as the way to go when you want a top quality race for all ages, and the Cox Plate, hardly ever won by a “despised roughie” in its long history, is one of the best on planet Earth.

And this year’s nine-horse edition is laced with as much intrigue as ever - perhaps even more so - given some major drama that started on Tuesday surrounding one of the race favourites Via Sistina.

She tossed her jockey and galloped two laps of Moonee Valley - far more work than her trainer would have liked - but is still set to take her place in the field.

The mare will want to be at her peak, because she’ll be lining up against a small but exceptionally talented bunch.

Much interest surrounds Japanese entrant Prognosis, a stallion who brings impressive form from Japan, and from a couple of trips to Hong Kong - good enough for bookies to make him favourite at around $3.30.

There’s Pride Of Jenni, who was crowned Australia’s Horse of the Year earlier this month after winning several major races in memorable style, racing out to huge leads and hanging on to break the hearts of many top-class rivals.

Star three-year-old colt Broadsiding won five straight through the autumn and spring, including three G1s, but is out for redemption as fourth-favourite after failing in the Caulfield Guineas last start.

Fan favourite Mr Brightside is back for another attempt after falling millimetres short last year, while there’s a couple of Europeans here to also add spice.

There are high quality support acts on the 10-race card including four G2s and three G3s.

And in Sydney there’s another engrossing meeting at Randwick, highlighted by the $2m G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), where emerging star colt El Castello - trained by the great Bart Cummings’ son Anthony - will try to make it four wins on the bounce, vying for favouritism with the gelding he beat last start in Swiftfalcon. There’s also the $2m The Invitation (1400m) for fillies and mares, headed by Chris Waller pair Olentia and Zougotcha, and the $1m Callander-Presnell (1600m) for three-year-olds, where Gai Waterhouse’s Anode is the fave.

But it’s the Cox Plate which will as always get hearts beating the fastest.

Let’s take a look.

WHAT IS IT?

The 104th Cox Plate, a weight-for-age epic over 2040m.

Class-wise, it’s consistently pretty much the best race Australia has, and regularly one of the finest in the world, according to the international ratings people. It was equal 24th on official world rankings last year, Australia’s equal No.1 along with the Champions Mile at Flemington’s Melbourne Cup carnival. (World No.1 was the Japan Cup, for your next trivia night!)

The Melbourne Cup is of course Australia’s greatest thing, racing or otherwise, but the Cox Plate holds status as this racing-crazy country’s highest-quality race, since it’s held under weight-for-age.

A Group 1 for three-year-olds and up, the race is named after William Samuel Cox, one of Australia’s first certified sport nuts. In 1883 he founded the club and track where the event is run, Moonee Valley, having bought the land from a man who’d bought it from “Long” John Moonee.

Known by most as “The Valley”, it’s a quirky little rectangular course, only 1800m in circumference. Flemington, by contrast, is a roomy 2400m around with a long home straight of 420m, as opposed to the Valley’s 180m dash to the line. Hence, a lot of horses who might like Flemington don’t fancy the Valley, especially the big, long-striding ones. Conversely, there are the much-loved “Valley specialists”, who you can comfortably put your house on.

While the Valley is often a challenge for horses, especially at their first try, it does have a friendly, spongy surface and cambered turns to help horses negotiate its tight corners.

And the Cox Plate is held over probably the best, most testing, distance in racing – a mile and a quarter – in which horses need both those ingredients of speed and stamina more than any other. (A mile and a quarter is more like 2000m. The Valley runs this over 2040m, to use the full length of its home straight at the start).

The field jumps from the top of the straight and it’s often a bit of a frenzy for positions, often at high speed, before the first tight turn after 200m - although this year’s compact nine-horse field will probably made it more orderly.

Things usually stay fairly calm up the Dean Street side and over the back, but then the heat comes on down “the School Side”, from the 800m to the 600m. Passing Australia’s most famous educational institution (to racing fans anyway) - Moonee Ponds Central School - the runs start to come, bearing down to the home corner, before the dash to the line.

WHAT’S IT WORTH?

$5 million. The winner will take home $3 million, and there’s strong incentive just to make it into the race, with second prize $900,000, and even last place this year - ninth - bagging $75,000. In fact, the official race fields still says there’s $75,000 for coming in 10th. Those ambulance men and women will be having a party this year.

WHEN’S IT ON?

Stop everything this Saturday at 5.10pm.

WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?

At the course in Melbourne’s inner north, on Racing.com, Sky Racing or Channel 7. You can also twiddle the knobs and listen on your faithful leather-bound transistor radio, or follow the day live on foxsports.com.au.

BEST BARRIERS: Gate six, with seven winners in the past 34 years - including State Of Rest two years ago; 11 has had five in that time (though not in use this year), and 7 has had five. Worst barriers: 8 has had no winners in that time frame (nor have 12 and 14).

AGE: In the past 25 runnings, four-year-olds have won eight times, six-year-olds seven times, five-year-olds five times, and three-year-olds three, plus one seven-year-old and a nine-year-old.

MAIN PLOT LINES

Oh my, what drama here!

As her initials would suggest, Via Sistina is a Very Special mare.

Named for a street in Rome, she’s taken a long and dramatic road to get here.

She was born in England, bought for just $A10,000 at a yearling sale there, became an outstanding racehorse winning a G1 and placing in three others, and was then bought for $5.5 million and brought to Australia.

Here, she races for one of the fastest-growing major thoroughbred empires in the world, the Yulong enterprise of Zhang Yuesheng, the Chinese version of Dubai’s Shekh Mohammed, the Aga Khan or Robert Sangster.

She’s exploded onto the Australian scene, winning three G1s in five starts, and was many people’s picks for this Plate.

However, at Tuesday’s annual Breakfast With the Best function, where entrants have their final training gallop before the race, the unthinkable happened!

Via Sistina got her feet tangled up after stepping on a loose bandage on one of her forelegs, threw her jockey - the great James McDonald no less - and bolted away, eluding attempts to catch her, and covering no less than two-and-a-half laps of the whole 2000m track. It was envisaged she might gallop just 800m before that happened, not quite five kilometres.

If horses have dreams, that was surely the end of those she’d been having about the WS Cox Plate, most people thought. But then trainer Chris Waller stunned everybody by saying it was likely she’d still start.

He’ll most likely wait until race morning for a final check, but at the time of writing this, Via Sistina was still in the field - as equal second favourite.

Her connections and backers will want to hope her misadventure didn’t take too much out of her, because she’s up against some Cox Plate-standard runners in this Cox Plate.

Prognosis is the favourite, a Japanese seven-year-old stallion (though he’s still only six by northern hemisphere time.

He’s won seven of 12 in Japan, and while the peak of those have been two G2s, he’s run second in successive years in Hong Kong’s G1 Queen Elizabeth Cup (2000m), both times behind last year’s Cox Plate winner, Romantic Warrior.

There’s always a question mark about foreign raiders having their first race at The Valley, but Japan did plunder this with one such highly-vaunted visitor in 2019 with Lys Gracieux.

The other equal second favourite is Pride Of Jenni, the wonder mare who’s often remarkable wins led her to be crowned Australia’s Horse Of The Year earlier this month. You might remember her leading last April’s G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) by more than 100 metres at the halfway point, before bolting home by six lengths.

All eyes will be on the mare and her jockey, expat Irishman Declan Bates, as the field heads up the Dean Street side, seeing whether something similar will be tried in this race.

But McDonald rode Via Sistina to second in that Queen Elizabeth, and said afterwards he was “embarrassed” to be among riders made to look second rate by Bates. He likely won’t be letting Pride Of Jenni build another such lead this time.

Pride Of Jenni is not only a people’s favourite for the way she races but a sentimental choice as well. She’s part of a fleet of horses owned by former jumps jockey Tony Ottobre who all have “Jenni” in their title, named after Ottobre’s late daughter who died of brain cancer.

She’s also trained by the masterful Ciaron Maher, who’s on a roll after taking last Saturday’s Everest with Bella Nipotina and Caulfield Cup with Duke De Sessa.

Outside of the big three of Via Sistina, Pride Of Jenni and Prognosis, from the Godolphin racing empire of Sheikh Mohammed comes emerging star colt Broadsiding, who benefits from the three-year-olds’ light weight of just 49.5kg.

Under the care of Godolphin’s astute trainer James Cummings - grandson of Bart, son of Anthony - he was on fire in that aforementioned five-win streak before blotting his copybook with a fourth in the Caulfield Guineas. A lot of Sydney-trained horses can come unstuck in their first go at Caulfield, and he did. He might like The Valley’s cambered turns a lot more.

FIRST WINNER: Violoncello (1922)

LAST WINNER: Romantic Warrior (2023)

FAMOUS WINNERS: Just about all of them. But let’s keep it to Phar Lap (twice), Ajax, Hydrogen (twice), Rising Fast, Redcraze, Tulloch, Gunsynd, Dulcify, Kingston Town (thrice), Bonecrusher, Might And Power, Sunline (twice), Northerly (twice), Makybe Diva, So You Think (twice), Anamoe and of course, the one and only four-time winner, Winx (2015-2018), Lys Gracieux, Romantic Warrior.

OTHER MAJOR RACES ON THE DAY

FILLIES CLASSIC – Group 2, 1600m, Race 4, 1.55pm. A $300,000 race for some quality three-year-old females with the market headed by Polymia and Cavity Bay, who’s raced by Makybe Diva’s owner Tony Santic.

DRUMMOND GOLF VASE – Group 2, 2040m, Race 6, 3.05pm. Some smart three-year-old males going around in this $400,000 race, mostly with the hope of progressing to the VRC Derby next Saturday. Betting headed by Politely Dun, Red Aces, and King Of Thunder.

McEWEN STAKES — Group 2, 1200m, Race 7, 3.40pm. An open weight-for-age sprint worth $300,000 in which betting is headed by Oscar’s Fortune, Baraqiel and Mornington Glory and the hopeful-sounding I Am Unstoppable!

CRYSTAL MILE — G2, 1600m, Race 2, 4.20pm. A $400,000 open mile which has drawn 11 horses with the market topped by Nugget, Royal Champion and the opposite-sounding Plenty Of Ammo and Poison Chalice.

THE COX PLATE FIELD

Race 9, 5.10pm

1. MR BRIGHTSIDE (2) weight 59kg Approx odds - win $8/place $2.25.

FOR: … the lovers of that song by The Killers, and for quality horses. He’s one of the best this country has had in the past decade, winner of 17 races including seven G1s, and rated equal second-best in the country at present (120). Also put up a heroic effort when second in this race last year to the very good Romantic Warrior by the official margin of a cigarette paper. And that edition was rated Australia’s equal best race of the year. Inside barrier and has regular rider Craig Williams, fresh from his Everest success last week.

AGAINST: We know he just about won this last year, but is he ever going to win over 2000 metres-ish? His longest win has been a full two furlongs shorter, at 1630m. His 2000m record reads 6: 0-2-1. He’s really at his best at 1600m, where 10 of his wins have come. What’s more he’s now seven and may be losing his lustre, with just one win in his past seven starts, including two underwhelming seconds in his past two runs. Each way best.

2. PROGNOSIS (5) 59kg $3.40/$1.40.

FOR: Lightly-raced Japanese 7yo stallion by all-time great Japanese sire Deep Impact who comes with an imposing record of seven wins and five placings from 15 starts. Loves this distance, having won five times over it, and in April ran second over the trip in Hong Kong’s G1 Queen Elizabeth Cup for the second straight year - both times behind the outstanding Romantic Warrior. International rating of 120, just one point below Australia’s top-rater, Pride Of Jenni. Good gate, top Australian jockey in Damien Lane, who has strong connections to Japan and won this race on another of their horses, the mare Lys Gracieux, in 2019 . AGAINST: As always, it’s the “first look at Moonee Valley” factor. The tight little track is often not to the first-timer’s liking. If it pours, he’s got no heavy track form. He’s also in the wrong demographic, as a 7yo stallion. Only one 7yo has won this race this century, and that was super mare Winx when she took her fourth one. Fields Of Omagh did win as a 9yo gelding in 2006, but he loved the place. Those sorts of hoodoos always get broken eventually though, and Japanese horses have made a habit of winning our biggest races in the past 10 or so years. Top chance.

3. KOVALICA (9) 59kg $26/$5

FOR: Great big-race jockey in Mark Zahra, and is from the stable of master trainer Chris Waller, who’s won four of the last nine of these things. OK, they were all with Winx and they came in succession, but he knows what he’s doing. This 5yo gelding has won up to 2400m, so the trip’s no worry.

AGAINST: Wide gate, and He’s a 5yo gelding, and while that sounds good they’ve won this race only once since 2001. That was only last year though, so the demographic is in form. But this is a horse who’s treated punters like that ex you keep going back to. He won six of his first nine, and everyone said “I’m in love with this horse!” And they’ve kept backing him in with alarming regularly since, and he’s stomped his hoofs all over their foolish hearts. He hasn’t won in 14 more goes since those first nine, and thus he’s acquired one of the worst tags a horse can attain in racing - “non winner”. Non, merci.

4. ROYAL PATRONAGE (3) 59kg $31/$6.

FOR: This is the biggest omen tip since omens were invented. Check the name, and the dude and duchess who’ve been on the front page all week. Apart from that, he’s a pretty good horse by a sire whose kids are winning many big races around the world these days, Wootton Bassett. Having kicked off in Europe, this powerful 6yo stallion was imported here by his powerhouse trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, and brained them on his Australian debut over 1400m at Randwick. Solid thirds in three Sydney runs since. Inside draw and big race jockey in Michael Dee.

AGAINST: Hasn’t quite done the business in those three thirds, being up on the pace in the last two before fading late, over 1600m and 1900m. You want to see a bigger finish for a class race over 2040m such as this one. He did run second over 2063m as a three-year-old, but was beaten three lengths. Place only.

5. DOCKLANDS (1) 59kg $20/$4.20.

FOR: English 5yo stallion with an Ashes blend of a canny English trainer in Harry Eustace and a great Australian jockey in Blake Shinn from the inside barrier. Has a G1 second to his name two starts back at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne Stakes (1609m). Very consistent performer with three wins and six placings from 11 starts. Could be named after a part of Melbourne with a proud sporting heritage, and now here he is in the same city.

AGAINST: If that last bit sounded a little desperate … this guy has only run roughly this trip once, when seventh, beaten 11.5 lengths, over 2112m in a G1 at York last start in August. His seven previous runs were over 1600m, where he looks better suited. Most Cox Plates these days have one or two of these highly rated English raiders who come here and do nothing. This could be one of them. Prefer others really.

6. PRIDE OF JENNI (7) 57kg $4.60/$1.60.

FOR: Forget Delta Goodrem, this is Australia’s sweetheart. She’s the mare who won everyone’s hearts last season with her three daring all-the-way wins at G1 level, including that day at Randwick in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) when she was the hare to their tortoise, building a halfway lead big enough to win that round the world yacht race, and ultimately winning by six lengths. Master trainer in Ciaron Maher, and has her old mate Declan Bates in the saddle. She’ll jump out in front and Moonee Valley is famously a leader’s track. Once she enters the very short straight with a big lead, she could be very hard to run down.

AGAINST: She hasn’t quite been as dashing as a 7yo mare as she was at six. Has had four starts this campaign, starting short in the betting each time, and has scraped up just the one win in a four-horse G2 over 1600m. That was at this track at least, where she’s got a win and a second from two starts. She maybe seems a touch short of her best self, including last Saturday when she led over 1600m at Randwick but couldn’t keep it up, and was caught late to finish second. Perhaps Maher was training her for this longer task, but the quick back-up off seven days’ break is a slight worry. Each way.

7. VIA SISTINA (4) 57kg $4.40/$1.60.

FOR: A very high quality imported mare who was so well performed - including winning a prestigious 2011m G1 in Ireland - that the massive Yulong Stud enterprise bought her for $5.5 million last year. She’s carried on the form here with three G1 wins from five Australian starts, two at 2000m and, just to show off, one at 1400m. Trained by Chris Waller and ridden by James McDonald - the most powerful axis in Australian racing. She’s a scarily talented animal and McDonald - perhaps the best jockey in the world - hated getting beaten on her when Pride Of Jenni and Bates embarrassed all others in the Queen Elizabeth. He’ll have a better plan against her this time.

AGAINST: The obvious is she had that mishap on Tuesday where she ran about 5000m, though Waller feels she might be fine, given rest between then and Saturday, as she wasn’t going full pelt. It’s not ideal, but this race has a history of great stories. Another slight doubt is she’s having her first race at Moonee Valley. But she’s not the tall, long-striding type who might be troubled by its tight contours, and she’s shown herself as a horse who sweeps all before her. She’s a 7yo mare - and the great Winx is the only one of those to win this race this century - but she’s only six by northern hemisphere time. McDonald has won the past two Cox Plates, and he’ll know he’s on close to the best horse in the field to try to raise a hat-trick. Hard to beat.

8. BROADSIDING (8) 49.5kg $6/$1.80.

FOR: Hugely classy colt from the Godolphin empire, who gets in with a light weight of 49.5kg as a three-year-old. Has already won three G1s, two as a two-year-old, and then first-up at three, over 1400m at Rosehill. Great trainer in James Cummings, who won this for Godolphin two years ago with Anamoe, and should have won it the year before when that horse was a 3yo colt, like Broadsiding is now, only to be denied by a cruelly dismissed protest. Has won five of nine and is quality, and has the superb Jamie Kah aboard.

AGAINST: Blotted his copybook pretty badly last start with a disappointing fourth in the Caulfield Guineas over 1600m. That’s a set-weight race for three-year-olds only, he started $1.80 favourite, and ran well short of expectations. Jockey reported he didn’t handle Caulfield, as many can’t on their first attempt. Moonee Valley may be kinder, but he’s also rising to 2000m for the first time, against older horses for the first time, and has a sticky barrier. Place only.

9. EVAPORATE (6) 49.5kg $21/$4.20.

FOR: Emerging three-year-old gelding with a light weight, decent gate and accomplished Hong Kong-based rider Karis Teetan in the saddle. The horse has been in some very strong recent form, including four straight wins - rising from maiden class to G2. And the last three of those were his first goes right here at Moonee Valley. You’ve gotta love a Valley specialist. At his next and latest start, he stepped up to G1 level in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) and ran a most creditable third, flashing home from the rear to suggest he’ll get the 2040m, and finishing ahead of Broadsiding.

AGAINST: It’s still his first go at the trip, and he’d have to be pretty exceptional to make that a success against some of these rivals. He also comes in after a lengthy six-start campaign starting in July. His trainers, the Hayes brothers, didn’t know he’d turn out this good when that campaign started, and this race is a late change of plan. Still, the stable says he’s done brilliantly since the Guineas. Place only.

TIPS: 1. VIA SISTINA; 2 Prognosis; 3 Pride Of Jenni; 4 Mr Brightside.